The Other Side of War: Power, Profit & Geopolitical Chess

The Endgame of Geo-Politics – Who really wins, when markets thrive and thousands die?
The hidden truth about how some business houses still bank on conflict for profit.

War and its bitter truth  

While millions are suffering in Iran, Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine, it’s heartbreaking to see a community of businesses, organisations, investors, and a few nations making record profits. The article highlights the other side — focusing on those who exploit these desperate situations. Among them is a flip-flop statesman, a leader, and a self-proclaimed Nobel Prize nominee whose actions—(such as his ‘Make America Great again policy’, appears somewhat far-fetched considering his openness to accepting gifts for favors and the challenges faced by the American community owing to his erratic decisions that is being ignored, further evidenced by a supreme court set back to his famuos tariff scheme) —along with relentless rhetoric from him and his ministers - poses daily risks to the lives of countless sons and daughters. It’s shocking when he claims it’s a 'small price to pay if you want to get rid of Iran.' The irony is striking—should the world be so afraid of  Iran, its policies and Iran’s leaders, especially when much of the top brass has been eliminated? Perhaps it’s time to rethink how we perceive these conflicts and the true cost of our actions. Was this merely a distraction to divert attention from Epstein's guilt and the upcoming midterm elections in USA? The real issue is that, as the global order shifts, we see that those responsible for Epstein’s crimes (an Inhumane display of wealth and power by rich - targeting underage innocent girls) are the ones influencing the narrative and even profiting from it.

Abstract Overview: The backdrop

Even if recent data are accurate, America's literacy rate is about 99%, while Iran's is 89%. Iran's youth literacy rate is 97%, indicating that the gap is closing rapidly, according to a 2022 US Career Institute survey . Literacy is a basic right for all social groups, and higher literacy rates indicate a nation's overall health and support economic development. Criticising the Iranian government, demanding regime change, and encouraging citizens to oppose barbarism and their leaders—especially through foreign-sponsored mercenaries—might be somewhat unwarranted if these literacy statistics are accurate. Such perspectives seem to favour the powerful exclusively. Modern diplomacy, which promotes dialogue rather than conflict, has a proven track record: we end up at the table for discussion eventually. It was surprising to see that before February 28th, during Ramadan—after the illegal capture of Venezueluan president, Nicolas Maduro, in a military operation called 'Operation Absolute Resolve'—which bypassed international laws and followed up by a failed attempt to acquire Greenland, the United States, usually seen as a global peacekeeper, chose to bomb Iran's top leaders, including the killing of Supreme Religious Leader Ali Khamenei, despite an ongoing peace negotiations. Now, after nearly 45 days, the world finally breathes a sigh of relief as both countries agree to hold peace talks in Islamabad, while NATO members responding strongly, with some like France openly stating their positions.
But what did we achieve after 6000 plus lives lost to the current war and international oil barrel price rising upto 120$ per barrel so far- the same blabbering of Iran surrendering its Uranium deposit and getting the Strait of Hormuz free for trade - But was it not already free before the war? The hypocrisy - we are back to square one -  but still celebrating every news that points towards peace- no matter how many innocent lives have been sacrificed- Going by the data sourced from Wikipedia  the average death toll ranges for the accounted list of war victims as 570 million with World War II recording the highest death toll of 78-90 million - during the period 1930 to 1945. Imagine these are the toll listed as per records but compiling an exact number will be tougher as not all killings are recorded as wars, like genocides and mass killings. Sun Tzu, from the 6th century BC - a famous Chinese military strategist, in their book, The Art of War, stated that- The war benefits no one”. But that famous quote no longer holds true, as big corporations, investors, strategists, defence contractors, war suppliers, and even governments are benefiting from the war.

Digging into the Other side by decoding the current crisis - Is Iran really a threat?

On 28th February 2026, US and Israeli aircraft began striking targets across Iran in what the Pentagon would brand as “Operation Epic Fury.” Within the hours of operation, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, was killed and assassinated in an airstrike on his own compound. But not only him, his entire lineage, including his 14-month-old granddaughter, Zahra Mohammadi Golpayegani, was also reported dead after the attack.

Iran announced 40 days of mourning, and news channels were filled with images of tanks crossing borders and families fleeing homes and moving to shelter homes. But some companies silently made money, which almost every news channel failed to highlight. Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defence contractor, hit a new all-time high, closing at $676.70, which is up from 4% on the first day of the war. Other companies, such as RTX and Northrop Grumman, also jumped 5% and 6% on the same day. In London, BAE Systems rose 6% against the falling FTSE 100. These companies had not launched a new product or a service, but were simply earning because the war had started. The numbers remain true in 2024 as well, when the top 100 largest arms companies collectively earned $676 billion in a single year, the highest figure ever recorded in human history.

On April 8th, 2026, the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Despite this, the situation remains ‘delicate’ and ‘close to over’, with both countries accusing each other of breaching the terms. The US views Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a violation, while Iran considers Israel's strike on Lebanon a breach. The ceasefire is now extended indefinitely, as of April 22nd 2026, with future talks lined up. As days pass, the pattern persists—suffering on one side and profits on the other.

To date, more than 6000 people have lost their lives in Iran by US-Israeli strikes since February 28th, according to Iran’s health ministry (at the time of writing this blog). The blog is not about who is right or wrong in the war, but it aims to highlight a parallel reality that runs alongside every war but is reported far less predominantly- the economic architecture of the war.

The first few days of war, in Numbers: How American defence contractors quadrupled their production:

On March 1st 2026, the first trading day after Operation Epic Fury, the defence sector’s collective gain on one day exceeded the GDP of many small nations, and this was even before any new contract had been signed. The market was simply reacting to what everyone in the industry already knew: a war of this scale against a country with Iran’s military capabilities, with a regional theatre involving Hezbollah, Houthis forces, and the Gulf state proxies, would require enormous quantities of weapons, which would anyway need to be replenished and upgraded quickly. So, the market reacted accordingly and people started investing in defence contractors.

One morning, the world saw a new post on Truth Social from Donald J. Trump, claiming that the US gains financially from the war. He stated, “The United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far, and when oil prices rise, we profit significantly.” This comment from the leader of one of the biggest economies shows how economic interests can influence war decisions. It’s not cynicism; he simply pointed out the economic realities of conflict—how countries benefit from rising oil prices during military actions. Both America and the world understand that real power lies with those who control oil. Over the centuries, the battlefield has shifted from gold to the dollar to oil.

Just the two days of operation Epic Fury cost the US approximately $5.6 billion. Each of the Tomahawks fired from an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Arabian Sea was worth 2.5 million. The US also used $4 million THAAD interceptors to defend against Israeli ballistic missiles and drones, which cost around $20,000 only.

The following table highlights which weapons were being used in Operation Fury and who manufactured them, highlighting the cost per unit and the performance of the stocks of each manufacturer.

While every exchange was asymmetrical in Iran’s favour on cost, it was 100% in favour of the defence contractor’s revenue in the US, all of which (RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, L3Harris, and Honeywell Aerospace) have been asked to quadruple their production to meet wartime demands. The US has also proposed to increase its military budget from $1Trillion in 2025 to $1.5 Trillion by 2027.

Israel’s defence firms are the other top beneficiary:

Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael are the top three defence companies of Israel, all of which have gained a combined revenue of around $16 billion in 2024. This number will be substantially surpassed when the data for 2025 and 2026 are published, since Elbit Systems has become Israel’s most valuable publicly listed company and Rafael’s drone Dome and David’s Sling are firing intercepts around the clock. Each fired intercept means a new one is required, which is a new order. SIPRI, one of the world’s renowned research institutes famous for publishing content regarding military spending and arms industry in general, has stated that despite the economic or political conditions of the war-struck countries, they continue to place orders for new military warfare.

War-risk insurance companies: The least visible but most lucrative beneficiary:

Just like cars, oil ships, and oil tankers also have insurance, but in delicate situations such as war, Oil tankers and ships need special insurance to cover the risk of missile attacks, seizure, unsolicited captures or any war-related damage to the ship. Such a type of insurance is called War Risk insurance. Image crisis. Many insurance companies stop offering coverage due to high risk and demand for insurance also becomes very high. So when war or conflict increases risk, the insurance companies, such as Chubb, that are willing to take that risk can also make huge profits, for instance, at the Strait of Hormuz, where premiums for ships attempting to transit the strait have increased in some cases by 12 times their pre-war rates.

The new war economy: The Tech and AI Blockade premium:

Apart from oil and defence companies, the tech and AI sector are the new beneficiaries of the war. Companies such as Plantier Technologies rose nearly 6% in one week since its AI-powered battlefield intelligence platforms are directly utilised by the United States logistics and operational planning. The majority of the company's revenue comes from defence contracts with governments, which means conflict is structurally Plantair Technologies' growth market.

Elon Musk's Starlink is also providing military-grade satellite communication to the war. The company appeared in the Cyprus Top 100 ARM producers list for the first time in 2024, with $1.8 billion in arms revenue, and the data for 2025 and 2026 will be much higher when published.

Apart from this, open source LLMs such as Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Antropic’s Cluade (from Mar 2025 to Mar 2026 only) have also agreed to work closely with the US government to provide military support, as a result of which, all three companies have reported profits in this quarter.

Outcome of the 2nd round of Talks held on April 22nd?

Abhijeet Rajkeins implies that ‘Ignorance is the best policy,’ probably reflecting Iran's approach in the second round of negotiations. Iran opted not to attend the meeting or seek an extension of the ceasefire, insisting that peace talks proceed on its terms. Meanwhile, Mr. Flipper ‘Trump’ posted on social media to declare a non-aggressive, indefinite extension of the ceasefire, attributing this move to a request made by Islamabad.
As we progress, Iran's tougher position on avoiding peace talks under threats, combined with America's firm stance on a military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing the global energy crisis towards escalation.
War has never been the solution. Permitting discussion and dialogue, in line with our country's official stance, and reaching a lasting agreement will keep the current economic structure intact. If conflict resumes, defence stocks are likely to rise, and oil prices will increase. Conversely, if peace is achieved, some stocks and oil prices may decline. However, new companies will benefit from reconstruction contracts, humanitarian relief efforts, sanctions, NGOs, and the geopolitical shifts that follow a truce.

A prefix for the wise: The article neither praises Iran's harshness nor depicts it as a hero, nor does it portray America as a villain. Our goal is for readers to grasp the situation as it is, while our writers share observations and anecdotes from the current landscape and about the other side of teh war in the context of the current geopolitical crisis in South Asia. And as we speak, the other side continues to benefit from the war.